 |
Peter
Wilson
Chairman |
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THE
2003 YEAR HAS SEEN OUR OPERATING RESULTS MEET BUDGET EXPECTATIONS, BUT
MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE ADJUSTMENT TO THE
CARRYING VALUE OF OUR FORESTS. LOWER NZ DOLLAR LOG PRICES TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER FOREST VALUES AND WE, ALONG WITH ALL FOREST INVESTORS IN NEW ZEALAND,
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THIS VALUE ADJUSTMENT.
Operating earnings
of $7.074 million are ahead of 2002 ($6.968 million),which is very much
in line with our expectations. However, as advised in an April announcement
to the stock exchange, the independently assessed market value of the
company's forest assets has fallen from $162.4 million last year, to $141.9
million as at 30 June 2003. After accounting for this non-cash write-down
and, after providing for deferred tax for the first time, the company
has reported a loss of $36.484 million for the twelve month period.
New Zealand is moving
towards the compulsory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards
("IFRS "). In this regard, Evergreen has made two important
accounting policy changes this year. The first of these changes is the
introduction of valuation accounting rather than historical cost accounting
for forestry assets. Valuation accounting has been adopted with effect
from 30 June 2003 and in future, the company 's operating result will
include both realised returns from the harvesting of its trees, and unrealised
movements in underlying value of the company 's forests. This economic
approach to earnings measurement is appropriate for a business like ours
where a substantial proportion of the shareholder return within an accounting
year may be represented by the unrealised value of the biological growth
of the company 's forests and price driven valuation movements.
The second accounting
policy change involves the recognition of the company's notional deferred
taxation liability. This provision is in respect of tax payable that would
crystallise in the event of a total sale of the company's forest estate.
Evergreen has substantial tax losses to carry forward and combined with
future costs related to the maintenance and development of our forest
estate, the company is most unlikely to pay tax for the foreseeable future.
The provision is required to meet the international accounting standards
and there are no current plans that would see the provision crystallise.
The deferred tax provision equates to approximately seven cents per share
(on a fully diluted basis).
Shareholders
will recall that the potential impact of of valuation accounting and deferred
taxation were referred to in the 2002 Annual Report and again in the half-year
report to December 2002.
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
Industry
sector results announced this year reflect the impact of a significant
upward movement in the value of the New Zealand dollar, increased costs
(particularly in shipping), and flat US dollar prices for products. The
scale of the impact is significant.
In September 2001
the NZ dollar bought US$0.40. A year later it bought US$0.46 and in August
2003 it bought US$0.58. The general view must be that the mid rate range
(US$0.50 - US$$0.55) is an appropriate level for New Zealand exporters
to base their investment strategies upon. There are financial hedging
arrangements that provide some protection from currency movements but
business success must be measured on the underlying margins generated
from trading.
Trading operations
in any sector are unlikely to be able to cope with a 50% volatility against
their major trading currency and maintain profitability at target levels
for an extended period.
Stumpage realisations
since July 2002 have fallen by as much as 60% due to currency movements
and increased shipping costs (see table).
ILLUSTRATION OF
IMPACT ON RETURNS
| LOG
GRADE |
PRUNED
|
A
GRADE
|
| PERIOD |
JUL
02
|
JUL
03
|
JUL
02
|
JUL
03
|
| USD
Price (CNF) |
$107
|
$107
|
$66
|
$67
|
| Shipping/Services
(USD) |
$20
|
$27
|
$20
|
$27
|
| Currency
(NZD: USD) |
0.48
|
0.585
|
0.48
|
0.585
|
| NZD
Price (FOB) |
$181
|
$137
|
$96
|
$68
|
| NZD
Costs |
$60
|
$60
|
$50
|
$50
|
| NZD
Margin |
$121
|
$77
|
$46
|
$18
|
| Impact |
|
(36%)
|
|
(61%)
|
Source: Evergreen
Forests Limited.
GOVERNMENT
Last year I referred to Evergreen s view on the Kyoto Protocol and
the pending nationalisation of carbon credit rights held by property owners.
Nothing has happened in this last year to reduce those concerns. The forestry
industry is a major contributor to this countrys economy. The effective
confiscation of carbon sequestration credits, delays in dealing with transportation
and infrastructure issues, and perceived regulatory barriers to investment
in New Zealand-domiciled processing, are issues that demand a high level
of industry and Government attention.
These are not easy problems to resolve but if you believe as I do, that
agri-based industries will continue to be the driver of New Zealand s
economic wealth, then some priority needs to be directed to assisting
rather than inhibiting our key industries.
We are seeing the consequences of difficult times and I believe the industry
is working hard to minimise the impact. There needs to be a higher level
of understanding of what is needed to be done and what it is that Government
can and should do to assist in creating a positive climate for business
development.
INVESTMENTS
This year $8.5 million has been spent on development forests (including
interest costs) with much of this investment made in our East Coast forests.
Our policy of investing to optimise pruned wood production continues on
favoured sites and we are satisfied that all our forests are in good health
and meeting targeted growth rates.
We have evaluated a number of modest sized forest opportunities but have
not made any acquisitions.
FUNDING
We concluded a 10 year US dollar denominated facility with the Boston-based
John Hancock Life Insurance in February.This loan refinances the facility
provided by Carter Holt Harvey on our purchase of the Waiau and Wairoa
forests in 1999.The facility carries an interest rate of 6.88%and the
loan meets our objectives to obtain longer-term facilities while providing
a modest portion of our debt with exposure to the US dollar.
We have also extended our banking arrangements with Westpac Banking Corporation
to a five-year term. These facility changes allow us to better align our
expected crop maturity with our debt obligations.
The impact of negative forest value changes does result in debt levels
that are higher than your Board considers appropriate for the longer term.
Consideration is being given to strategies to improve the debt ratio.The
further conversion of 2.732 million convertible notes in February 2003
has reduced debt and increased equity.
LONGER TERM INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
The last year has again shown us the extent to which we in New Zealand
are dependent on the health of the major developed economies. With much
of our trade in US dollars, any significant movement in the US economy
has a profound effect on our export industries. That is particularly so
in the forestry sector where the Chinese currency is linked to the US
dollar and trade with most Pacific-rim countries is denominated in the
same currency. Diversification of markets and of products, and increasing
acceptance of the special qualities and versatility of New Zealand plantation-grown
timber are clearly important strategies. The challenge is to be able to
attract additional investment in processing in New Zealand. The increasing
maturity of forests in regions such as Gisborne and Northland do provide
a resource base for further processing investment.
The desirability of investment in renewable resources that are produced
in an environmentally friendly manner seems to be widely accepted. However,
this has not provided any recognition by way of demand or price premium,
as yet. Certification of forests as sustainably managed, combined with
a focus on high standards of service and consistent quality, are helping
the industry, as is the New Zealand reputation and experience as plantation
foresters.
What is needed is evidence of the cessation of indigenous harvesting.
That will be the driver of improved demand for plantation grown timber
and while it is absolutely certain that demand will emerge, the question
remains -when.
Evergreen has always asserted that investment in this sector is long term.
We anticipated our operating cash flows would progressively increase as
harvest availability improved and our view, and that of our independent
valuers, has been that prices would trend upwards. We still hold that
view but acknowledge that the upward momentum has yet to emerge in the
marketplace.
It may be that the structure for forest ownership needs to have greater
flexibility to be able to reduce harvest in low price cycles. Evergreen
has this flexibility and plans to moderate harvest this year. Flexibility
may be enhanced through scale that enables higher levels of management
efficiency and lower debt levels.
Evergreen needs to manage the longer than planned period before price
improvements are obtained, and in so doing,address administrative costs
and ways in which debt ratios may be reduced.
Unlike the Asian downturn in 1998, short-term prospects are more likely
to improve through our currency returning to mid point levels and a return
to more
competitive shipping rates. The anticipated lift in the US economy will
probably be the driver of improved product prices.
Evergreen expects both to be evident in the second quarter of 2004.
EVERGREEN PRIORITIES
| 1) |
In
the last 6 months your Directors have undertaken a review of process
and organisational efficiency.
We conclude that: |
-
The
marketing subsidiary, Forestry New Zealand Limited,is achieving very
good margins from the companys harvest volume in the current
market and adding value through co-ordination of shipping and third
party purchasing of logs. The cost of this in-house service is in
line with external costs and we enjoy the benefits of a team focused
on Evergreens production.
-
The
management of Evergreen s pure play forest ownership function
remains appropriately small and we see no need to change this approach.
- There is some added
cost arising from the listed nature of the company. These costs would
be relatively lower should the company achieve greater scale and if
that scale is not realised then the costs associated with listing must
be reviewed.
| 2) |
Shareholders
will be aware of the Boards desire for this company to be considerably
larger. Obtaining scale remains a key goal for us and growth will
allow us to gain efficiencies from our present base. Evergreen has
the skills and experience to increase assets under management while
maintaining the level of specialist input to ensure high levels of
investment overview. Evergreen will be looking to achieve growth and
while the investment market is challenging, your Board considers the
company has the credentials to justify growth as a priority in the
year ahead.
|
| 3) |
We
want to ensure we preserve the important fabric of our relationships
with customers,suppliers and contractors. Forestry is a cyclical commodity
business and it is essential to maintain a market presence and retain
skills and investment at a level that enables periodic downturns to
be managed. Evergreen will play a constructive part in that process.
|
| 4) |
There
is however,a need to deliver benefits to our shareholders. We expected
to be in a position where we would be distributing some income to
our shareholders this year. That will not happen and the market prospects
for that to happen in the near term are not promising. We can moderate
our harvest to meet operational costs and service debt but to deny
improved future returns by accelerating harvest in current market
conditions is not seen as being in shareholder s best interests.
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GOVERNANCE
Ohio Public Employee Retirement System is the beneficial owner of 42%of
the ordinary voting securities in Evergreen. This shareholder has nominated
two appointees to our Board to replace the Xylem Fund appointees who retired
last year.
We are pleased to welcome Paul Fowler and Robert Kriscunas to the Board
and look forward to their contribution. Both have relevant experience in
the forestry industry.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The demands of this
industry have required considerable effort and the commitment and determination
of the Evergreen team has been of a high standard.

Peter
Wilson
CHAIRMAN
20 September 2003
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