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Mark
Bogle
Chief Executive |
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INDEPENDENT
VALUATION OF THE COMPANY 'S FOREST ESTATE HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT
WRITE-DOWN OF THE CARRYING VALUE OF OUR FORESTS.OUR TRADING PERFORMANCE
THIS YEAR WAS ON BUDGET AND FROM AN OPERATIONAL VIEWPOINT WE DID WHAT
WE HAD PLANNED TO DO.
On the back of an increase in harvest levels ,Evergreen had record operating
earnings of $7.074 million in 2003 (2002:$6.968 million) and has cash
deposits of $6.6 million at year-end. This has placed the company in a
sound position to manage through the current market downturn and assist
preservation of shareholder value through deferral of low margin harvest.
We have achieved a number of our goals over the past year, including:
- Marketing: The
company 's marketing subsidiary, Forestry New Zealand made a positive
earnings contribution and,more significantly,delivered real gains in
increasing the margin from Evergreen 's harvest operations.
- Log Quality: A
Debarker and Anti-Sapstain Plant was commissioned at Marsden Point,
Northland in September 2002 and delivered a small profit and a positive
cash return. The plant has significantly improved the quality of logs
delivered to our export customers.
- Debt Restructure:
Earlier this year we refinanced an existing term loan from the proceeds
of a ten-year, US dollar denominated facility from John Hancock Life
Insurance Company. This refinancing coincided with record low interest
rates in the US market. At 30 June 2003 the average duration of the
company 's term debt was 5.8 years compared with 3.3 years twelve months
ago.
- Environmental Certification:
Independent certification of Evergreen 's North Island forests was granted
by the Forestry Stewardship Council (FSC).The logs from these forests
can now be sold to customers requiring certified product to meet chain
of custody compliance. This is an important advantage in terms of access
to increasingly discerning high-value markets.
OPERATIONS
For the year ended 30 June 2003,Evergreen 's harvest was 295,450m3, an
increase of 47%over the total harvest in 2002.This remains below the company's
near-term sustainable harvest capability of some 360,000m 3 per annum.
In addition to the harvest volume from our own forests, the company sold
20,945m 3 of logs through its third party log trading activities.
Evergreen maintains its ability to respond to changes in market conditions
allowing it to target its production to the highest return customers.
Evidence of this has been the shift away from export markets over the
second half of the financial year in favour of increased supply to domestically
based customers.
We did generate lower revenue returns from a higher level of harvest volume.
This is partly because of lower log prices this year and a reflection
of our decision to harvest a greater proportion of lower margin framing-regime
stands.
Our Forestry New Zealand division proved particularly helpful in determining
our options in a changing market.
MARKETS
The continued growth in demand for NZ radiata pine from China has been
one of the features of the year. China imports logs from New Zealand across
the full quality spectrum (pulp, unpruned and pruned sawlog grades)and
USD prices have firmed during the year. China has now surpassed Japan
as New Zealand 's second largest market for logs behind Korea. This market
demand is underpinned by China 's reduced harvest, its strong economic
performance, and WTO-related initiatives.
Evergreen has focused on building direct relationships with China-based
customers, particularly those connected with or directly involved in the
rapidly growing furniture manufacturing sector.

We are confident that there will be further strong growth in the China
market.
Domestically, there
has been strong demand from sawmills producing framing lumber for the
Australasian market and prices have held, but in other key markets there
has been a significant fall in NZ dollar prices, particularly during the
second six months of the financial year. This fall has been triggered
by the combination of a number of factors including lower prices for appearance
grade lumber in the US, higher shipping costs and the rapid appreciation
of the New Zealand dollar.
OUTLOOK
The outlook for this financial year is uncertain with some economic forecasters
predicting stronger world growth but conversely there is no end in sight
to the higher NZ dollar.At current log prices, Evergreen is planning to:
- Moderate its harvest
level to preserve value in anticipation of log prices improving in the
medium term. Based on current market conditions the company expects
to reduce its harvest to around 230,000m 3 over the next twelve months.
- Ensure we have
the ability to accelerate our harvest again as soon as market conditions
improve.
- Target forest areas
for harvest that are best suited to the current market. This is currently
unpruned stands supplying domestic customers rather than export markets.
- Continue developing
profitable niches in export markets, particularly in China and Korea.
- Increase the level
of third party log trading to preserve customer relationships and maintain
our presence in export and domestic markets.
- Implement ongoing
cost control measures.
- Consider selective
asset sales.
A
reduced harvest will result in a lower cash flow for 2004 and the company
is aware that this will delay its ability to provide shareholders with
a cash return. However the current market conditions are some of the most
challenging that the industry has experienced for many years and the potential
value gains from a delayed harvest are considerable. Most commentators
believe that we are at or near to the low point in the commodity cycle.
Evergreen shares this view.
HARVEST PROFILE

FOREST
VALUE: DISTRIBUTION BY LOG TYPE
FOREST
VALUE DISTRIBUTION BY AGE
These tables are
sourced from the Jaakko Poyry Consulting Forest Valuation as at 30 June
2003
EVERGREEN FORESTS
NTA
| |
30
June 03 |
30
June 02 |
| Undiluted |
|
|
| Net
Asset Value before deferred tax |
$0.70 |
$0.85 |
| Net
Asset Value after deferred tax |
$0.60 |
N/A |
| |
|
|
| Fully
diluted |
|
|
| (allowing
for all convertible instruments converting into shares) |
|
|
| Net
Asset Value before deferred tax |
$0.66 |
$0.78 |
| Net
Asset Value after deferred tax |
$0.59 |
N/A |
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE (UNDILUTED)1
as at 30 June 2003
Value of Evergreen’s
ordinary shares with different price growth and discount rate assumptions
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REAL
PRICE INCREASE 2
|
| DISCOUNT
RATE3 |
Nil%
|
One%
|
Two%
|
| Eight
per cent |
$0.83
|
$0.98
|
$1.14
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| Nine
per cent |
$0.70
|
$0.83
|
$0.97
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| Ten
per cent |
$0.59
|
$0.70
|
$0.82
|
| 1.
Before deferred tax. 2. Per annum, over the ten-year period 2008
to 2018. 3. Pre-tax, real. |
FOREST VALUE REDUCTION
The valuation of a long term asset by discounting its projected future
cash flows is sensitive to relatively small changes in revenue assumptions.
This is particularly evident in Evergreen's 30 June 2003 forest valuation.
Jaakko Pöyry Consulting ("JPC "), in completing its annual
valuation of the Evergreen estate has lowered its market value assessment
from $162.4m as at 30 June 2002 to $141.9m as at 30 June 2003. This
valuation change is primarily the result of the lower log prices being
used in the valuation. While disappointing, the possibility of a forest
value change was foreshadowed in the company's December 2002 interim
report to shareholders.
SUMMARY
Forestry as an asset class is a proven inflation hedge, is considered
a hard asset, and returns are protected to some degree by physical biological
growth of the trees. Investors are increasingly valuing these attributes
in the investment environment of the past few years.
In contrast to the steady, reliable growth of the trees is the cyclical
nature of the log markets. Flexibility is a key attribute in increasing
returns in cyclical markets and the company believes that a combination
of lower debt ratios and greater scale that allows full utilisation
of administrative capacity are essential goals.
The opportunity to deliver value for shareholders and allow an expectation
of a cash yield is dependent on what we as a company do to address the
issues of scale and debt ratios and the market prices for New Zealand
forest products in the future.
The present challenge
is to manage the consequences of a negative pricing period while positioning
the company appropriately for the future.
Together with my small
and committed team, I am happy to accept that challenge.

Mark Bogle
CHIEF EXECUTIVE
20 September 2003
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